Survey suggests lieutenant governor pick is helping Hobbs more than Biggs

Gov. Katie Hobbs' pick as her running mate is apparently doing her campaign more good than Andy Biggs' selection is for him. 

On one hand, a new survey shows that just barely half of those polled said a gubernatorial candidate's pick to run as lieutenant governor on Arizona's first-ever joint ticket will have any impact on how they decide to vote in the November general election. And just 16% said it would matter a great deal.

But pollster Mike Noble said more than a third of all independents surveyed said that having former Mesa Mayor John Giles on the Democratic ticket makes them more likely to vote for Hobbs. By contrast, just 9% of those questioned in the survey panned the incumbent governor's selection.

Those independents can make a difference in a state where they make up a third of the 4.3 million registered voters — and Hobbs won election for her first term by just 17,117 votes.

Giles, who was a registered Republican until earlier this year, is now one of them, having changed his affiliation to independent.

Conversely, just 18% of independents surveyed said that putting former state Sen. Sine Kerr on the GOP ticket made them more likely to vote for Congressman Biggs for governor. And 30% said her selection made them less supportive.

Noble said that Hobbs' pick of Giles helps "frame'' who she is.

"It's her saying, 'Hey, we're kind of like bipartisan, or we're more inclusive','' he said. That contrasts her with Biggs, who Noble said is coming across as far more partisan.

"So, I think it was a smart play by her,'' the pollster said.

Noble said the numbers in the survey also suggest the choice of Giles could help attract the support of at least some Republicans.

In doing his survey, Noble asked registered Republicans which camp they fit into: those who say they are more loyal to President Donald Trump or those who say they are more loyal to the Republican Party.

As it turned out, he said, they split almost 50-50.

What the survey found is that among the "Trump loyalists'' the reaction to Hobbs tapping Giles was decidedly negative, with 43% of respondents saying the choice makes them even less interested in supporting that ticket.

But among those who said their loyalty is to the GOP more than to Trump, just 43% said Biggs' selection of Kerr made it more likely they would support their party's ticket — with 26% saying the opposite.

Noble said the numbers for Biggs suggest he has a "base problem," meaning his first chore is to firm up his support within his own party for the ticket, particularly among those who say they are more loyal to the party than to Trump.

It's clear that Biggs has the faithful following of the Trump crowd, with 84% of those surveyed saying they support him over Hobbs. But that drops to 69% among those more loyal to the party, with 24% saying that, at the moment, they prefer the incumbent.

Biggs is doing what he can to move the needle. In his commercials and public appearances, he has sought to hammer away at Hobbs' record, saying she has failed to protect water and is to blame for the high cost of housing.

The poll, conducted from Aug. 10-13, however, suggests that has yet to have much impact.

On the question of water, for example, the survey of 1,040 registered voters found 75% of Democrats said they trust Hobbs more than Biggs. But Biggs had the trust of just 52% of those from his own party.

The same pattern showed up on the question of housing affordability, where only 55% of Biggs' own party members surveyed said they trust him more than Hobbs to handle it.

The survey has a potential margin of error of 3.0%.