Cats Stats: Texas Tech isn’t what it was — but could prove problematic for Arizona

Why? Because the ’25 Red Raiders were historically good.

They became the first Texas Tech squad to win 12 games in a season. They had one of the best defenses in the country. They were, by leaps and bounds, the best team in the Big 12.

That’s a tough act to follow.

So, as No. 13 Texas Tech prepares to host No. 22 Arizona on Saturday, it’s not surprising that the Red Raiders have fallen off a bit — although, it’s worth noting, they still can achieve everything they did last season.

Where has Texas Tech gotten worse? By how much? In what ways are the Red Raiders still a real threat?

Our objective in this week’s “Cats Stats” is to find out the answers to those questions — and more. We’ll start by going back to the beginning.

Experience and retention

Texas Tech tried to replicate last season’s successful formula, and it appeared that the Red Raiders nailed it.

Texas Tech entered the season with the third-most career snaps played (51,165) among Power Four programs — at Tech or elsewhere — according to The Athletic. The Red Raiders also had the third-most career starts (614) and the fourth-most games played (1,618).

Older teams have thrived in this new era of college football — see Indiana — but having experience doesn’t guarantee success. Colorado had the fifth-most snaps, and the Buffaloes are 2-5. Michigan State had the seventh-most snaps, and the Spartans are 2-6.

Still, though, you’d rather have it than not. You also want to keep your best players, and Texas Tech nailed that, too. Per the school’s sports-information department, Texas Tech and Air Force were the only FBS programs that did not lose a player to the transfer portal who played at least 150 snaps on offense or defense last season. In other words, the Red Raiders kept the players they wanted to keep.

But they didn’t get every player they wanted to get.

The missing piece

The biggest college football story of the offseason involved Texas Tech’s pursuit of quarterback Brendan Sorsby — and what happened after that.

Sorsby transferred to Tech in January, reportedly receiving an NIL package worth about $5 million. He would represent a clear upgrade for the Red Raiders at football’s most important position.

Sorsby then ran into trouble off the field. It was revealed that he placed thousands of bets on sporting events, violating NCAA rules. After a legal back-and-forth, the quarterback and his new school parted ways.

That left Will Hammond, coming off season-ending knee surgery, as the starting quarterback. Hammond has six touchdown passes — fewest among Big 12 starters — and six interceptions.

Last season’s starter, Behren Morton, had 22 TD passes and six picks. Sorsby, playing for Cincinnati, had a 27-5 TD-INT ratio — the best mark in the conference.

Sorsby also had a particular set of skills that Texas Tech desperately needed.

Dead zone

The 2025 Red Raiders’ fatal flaw was their inability to score touchdowns once they reached the red zone. They ranked 12th in the 16-team Big 12 with a red-zone TD rate of 55.4%.

Fast-forward to this season, and Texas Tech is even worse: The Red Raiders are 15th in red-zone TD rate at 51.7%.

That was one of the factors that cost Texas Tech in last week’s upset loss at Cincinnati. The Red Raiders scored only one touchdown in four trips inside the CU 20-yard line. Over their past three games, they’re just 5 of 15.

You know who ranked second in the Big 12 in red-zone TD rate last season? Cincinnati. Sorsby had a perfect 16-0 TD-INT ratio in the red zone. He also had six red-zone rushing touchdowns after scoring eight the previous season.

So yes, Texas Tech could have used a guy like that — especially since the Red Raiders’ defense isn’t quite as dominant.

Big 12’s best — by far

Texas Tech had some really subpar red-zone performances last season — but it didn’t cost the Red Raiders a single game.

They scored two touchdowns in eight trips against Houston. They were 2 of 7 against BYU. And they were 1 of 5 in the rematch against BYU in the Big 12 Championship Game.

Win, win, win.

Texas Tech allowed 11 points against Houston and a mere seven in each of the BYU games.

The Red Raiders ranked first in the conference and third nationally in scoring defense, allowing just 11.8 points per game — more than a touchdown less than Big 12 No. 2 Utah (18.9).

Texas Tech was first in the conference in run defense — by nearly 60 yards — and first nationally, yielding just 68.1 yards per game.

The Red Raiders were just fourth in the Big 12 in pass defense but had the lowest yards per attempt allowed (5.5; fourth best in the country), intercepted 17 passes and surrendered only 11 touchdowns.

Texas Tech had the best total defense in the Big 12 by more than 50 yards, the most sacks (41), the most total tackles for loss (105) and the most takeaways (32).

It was an all-time great defense.

Drop-off ... but dangerous

This year’s defense? Not bad ... but not what it was.

Texas Tech ranks sixth in the Big 12 in scoring defense (20.4 ppg), sixth in rushing defense (106.7 ypg), 14th in passing defense (266.1) and 13th in total defense (372.9).

The unit crumbled at Cincinnati, yielding 37 points and 255 rushing yards. As Arizona offensive coordinator Seth Doege astutely observed, it was the first time the Red Raiders had yielded more than 26 points in a game over the past two seasons.

But in certain ways — ways that could trip up the Wildcats — the Texas Tech defense is still dangerous.

The Red Raiders rank third in the league in sacks (21). Texas Tech defenders have recorded the most individual quarterback pressures (167) in the conference, according to Pro Football Focus.

Star defensive tackle A.J. Holmes Jr. leads the Big 12 in sacks (6.5) and pressures (32) — an incredibly impressive feat for an interior lineman.

Like most quarterbacks, Arizona’s Noah Fifita is more effective with a clean pocket than when pressured. When kept clean, Fifita has a 77.8% completion rate with a 15-0 TD-INT ratio, per PFF. When under pressure, he’s a 58.1% passer with a 3-4 TD-INT ratio.

Pressure leads to picks. The Red Raiders lead the Big 12 and rank second nationally with 13 interceptions.

Texas Tech is tied for first in the country with five pick-sixes. Linebackers Austin Romaine (two), John Curry (one) and Ben Roberts (one) are responsible for four of those.

Pass protection and taking care of the ball will be critical for Arizona when “Redline” meets the still-frisky Red Raiders.