On Arizona’s narrow path to the Playoff and other Big 12 thoughts | Michael Lev

Saturday’s game at Texas Tech isn’t the only must-win, make-or-break game for Arizona.

They all are.

To get into the 12-team College Football Playoff, the Wildcats not only have to beat the Red Raiders in Lubbock, they have to run the table.

Arizona and its Big 12 brethren will not get the benefit of the doubt from the CFP Committee.

A Big 12 team can get into the CFP with two losses — but only if it wins the conference title game, which brings an automatic berth. If the Wildcats lose Saturday, their chances of making the championship game would dwindle; they’d lose the head-to-head tiebreaker with both Texas Tech and BYU.

Making it as an at-large in that scenario? Good luck. Three-loss SEC teams will get in over two-loss Big 12 teams. You can write that down with a Sharpie. I guarantee that’s how it will play out.

Is that fair? Probably not. But the CFP Committee will look at metrics, and those metrics favor the SEC.

(Whether the metrics themselves are biased is another topic for another time.)

One example: strength of schedule. Per ESPN’s SOS metric, SEC teams have played nine of the 10 hardest schedules so far. The “easiest” schedule played by an SEC team? Georgia, at No. 33.

Georgia’s SOS — again, per ESPN — would be the sixth-most difficult in the Big 12. Five Big 12 teams are at 70 or lower, including three CFP contenders: Texas Tech (70), Arizona (75) and Utah (88).

Now, those numbers will improve as the contenders square off against one another. We’ve got Arizona-Texas Tech this week, BYU-Utah next week, and two more (currently) ranked matchups the following week: Texas Tech-Oklahoma State and Utah-Arizona.

That also means more guaranteed losses for the Big 12’s CFP hopefuls.

The conference’s best chance to be a multi-bid league might lie with the Big Ten, where quarterback injuries and ineptitude could turn contenders into pretenders.

Arizona’s best chance — its only chance, in my opinion — is to win out. That includes winning the Big 12 Championship Game. It’s the only way to ensure a two-loss gap between the Wildcats and an SEC team that finishes 9-3 or 10-3.

There’s a scenario where Arizona and BYU win their remaining regular-season games and meet again in Arlington. And if BYU should win the rematch ... Arizona would be out.

How do I know this? Because that’s exactly what happened to BYU against Texas Tech last year. The Cougars were 11-2 with both losses against Tech — and didn’t make the CFP.

So that’s the mighty challenge that lies ahead for Arizona. And the first step is about as formidable as it gets.

Take that for data!

Arizona kicker Michael Salgado-Medina drilled a season-long 53-yard field goal last week vs. Iowa State. Right down the middle. Plenty of distance. Made it look easy.

Later in the second quarter, Salgado-Medina missed a 31-yarder. Most would classify that kick as a “chip shot.”

The miss prompted my colleague, Justin Spears, to look up and discover some stats that don’t make much sense: Salgado-Medina has a better career accuracy rate from 50-plus yards (71.4%) than he does from 30-39 yards (66.7%) or 40-49 (37.5%).

Those numbers suggest that Salgado-Medina’s issues are 100% psychological. His success from 50-plus indicates that he has the physical ability to make just about any kick.

Salgado-Medina’s failures inside 50 are worrisome entering a game in which points could be hard to come by. The Arizona-Texas Tech matchup could be decided by a field goal.

“I got a lot of belief in Michael,” UA coach Brent Brennan said. “That's why I keep putting him out there. He's frustrated with the kick he missed on Saturday.

“But that is a unique statistic. Maybe we should take a couple delay of games and get him back there (beyond 50).”

Brennan was joking ... I think.

(Rincon) Market report

Going up: Big 12 scoring

Entering this week, Big 12 teams were averaging 32.3 points per game — the highest mark of any FBS conference. Twelve of the league’s 16 teams were averaging 30-plus points, with Oklahoma State leading the way at an even 40. Potential No. 1 overall draft pick Drew Mestemaker has a lot to do with that. Mestemaker leads all FBS quarterbacks with 41 pass completions that have gained 20 or more yards. He’s second in completions of 30-plus yards — behind West Virginia’s Michael Hawkins. The Big 12 isn’t the best conference in college football, but it just might be the most fun.

Going down: Cody Campbell’s patience

Texas Tech’s billionaire booster was none too pleased with the Red Raiders’ loss at Cincinnati. “There is no excuse or reason to lose a game like this,” he posted soon after. “We have to be better.” That comment, of course, prompted speculation that Campbell was growing impatient with head coach Joey McGuire. Which, in turn, prompted Campbell to post a lengthy defense of McGuire, saying: “He isn’t going anywhere.” We’ll see about that if Texas Tech tumbles down the stretch with by far the largest roster budget in the Big 12.

A question from my X

“Just how big of a loss is Jay’Vion Cole in this matchup against TT?” — @brettdberry via X

Arizona will be without its top cornerback — and possibly its best defensive player — for Saturday’s game.

I think the Wildcats can get by without him in this particular matchup. I expect Texas Tech to try to ram the ball down Arizona’s throat. Run defense will be priority No. 1.

Tyrese Boss has stepped up in a big way since some early struggles, and Dwight Bootle II has shown he can be a competent starter. The concern is the depth behind them. Those two and Cole formed a solid three-cornerback rotation. Now, barring injuries, Boss and Bootle will be expected to play the whole way.

Could nickel corner Malcolm Hartzog Jr. be an alternative on the outside if things go awry? Possibly. Arizona has plenty of options to play the “inside” positions in the secondary.

But if that were to happen, you’d be taking Hartzog out of his comfort zone. You’d have even more moving parts.

Danny Gonzales and his staff figured it out in the second half of the Holiday Bowl when the secondary was missing several key pieces. But by then, it was too late.

Threads

There’s nothing quite like the “Space Game,” and UCF nailed its look for the 10th such contest, aka “Mission X.” The design for the Friday-night game vs. Baylor “was heavily influenced by the astronauts of NASA’s earliest human spaceflight missions Mercury, Gemini and Apollo during the 1960s when the university was founded,” per UCF’s website. The all-white uniforms feature black numbers with “Canaveral blue” borders. The visible black stitching is meant to represent the zippers that were prominent on Project Mercury spacesuits, per UNISWAG.com. The helmets feature a thick red stripe, gold facemasks and U.S. flag imagery within the “UCF” lettering. Mission accomplished.

What he said ...

“The hardest thing about those moments is that you can't let it be about you. It has to be about this team. It has to be about us. That's hard to do because you're so emotionally connected to the place, whether you played there, or coached there, have history there, whatever it is.” — Brennan on offensive coordinator Seth Doege returning to Lubbock to face his alma mater

What he meant ...

“I have zero concerns about Seth Doege’s preparation and focus this week. Less than zero, actually. This isn’t some silly ‘Friday Night Lights’ subplot. Seth has lived that life. He’s a coach’s son. He ain’t getting distracted. He doesn’t want to come home to a for-sale sign on his lawn. You know what I mean?”

The other side

“Honestly, if you had told me that Stone Harrington would miss a 38-yard field goal, that my punter (Will Karoll), who's been as good as anybody in the nation, would average 31.1 yards and ... that we'd have given up (255) yards in rushing ... I don't know who would have taken that on their bingo card that those three things would happen. It was the perfect storm of really bad football.” — McGuire on Texas Tech’s loss to Cincinnati

Pick to click (aka #fadelev)

Given our ongoing slump and desperation to become bowl-eligible, we’re taking this in a totally different direction this week. Remember all that stuff I said about the high-scoring, high-flying Big 12? Forget it. Give me under 54.5 in the UA-Texas Tech game. Yes, both teams average more than 35 points per game. But, combined, they allow just 37.1. I foresee a defensive battle — maybe not on the level of Indiana-Michigan, but something like 23-17 or 26-20. Either way, the under hits easily. (season record: 2-5)

One last thing

If you happen to be a neutral observer Saturday, it shouldn’t be hard to pick a side.

Campbell has positioned himself as a classic rich-guy villain. The Jerry Jones wannabe is a literal oil magnate who’s way too online.

Meanwhile, Brennan bought $2,000 worth of tequila shots for patrons at Dirtbag’s after Arizona’s win over Iowa State and delivered the quote of the year (sorry, Danny G) two days later:

“If you want people to show up for you, you gotta show up for them.”

And how can you not root for Noah Fifita? The undersized, big-hearted quarterback is finally getting the national recognition he deserves.

In a story in The Athletic, Doege disclosed that Fifita suffered a torn MCL in his knee on the first play of the Colorado game last year and never told anybody.

So not only did Fifita sacrifice money to stay at Arizona, he’s willing to sacrifice his body for Arizona.

Here’s hoping that good things continue to happen to good people.