On the single biggest factor in the UA-Utah game, other Big 12 thoughts | Michael Lev

The X’s and O’s matter. The “Jimmys and Joes” matter.

But something else also matters just as much, if not more.

We’re talking about psyches. We’re talking about emotions. We’re talking about the human element.

Many of the most shocking upsets during this college football season have happened to favorites facing a “letdown game” or “trap game” after a momentous victory.

No. 2 Utah faces that exact scenario against No. 23 Arizona on Saturday.

The Utes are coming off a tense victory over archrival BYU. Their red-clad fans stormed the field at Rice-Eccles Stadium afterward.

If there’s any reason (besides safety) to not storm the field ever again, it’s what can befall your team the next week.

Look no further than BYU. The Cougars defeated then-No. 2 Notre Dame on Oct. 17. It was perhaps the biggest victory in program history.

Just seven days later, BYU lost at UCF.

No. 1 Georgia has one blemish on its record. The Bulldogs lost at home to unranked Auburn on Oct. 17. That game came one week after Georgia edged Alabama in an incredibly physical, intense battle between the SEC rivals.

Remember when Ole Miss won the “Lane Kiffin Bowl” vs. LSU on Sept. 19? Remember what happened next? One week later, the Rebels got stomped at Florida.

“We’ve dealt with that every week,” Utah coach Morgan Scalley told reporters Monday. “To get to really big games, guess what? You gotta stay focused, and you gotta focus on one game at a time. You beat Houston, and everyone says the same thing: ‘Well, they're primed for a letdown vs. Cincinnati after that.’ ”

Glad you brought that up, Coach. Seems like a valid counterpoint. After all, Utah crushed unranked Cincinnati on Halloween after beating No. 14 Houston the previous week.

But here’s the thing about that: The Bearcats were actually the ones more susceptible to an emotional letdown. They stunned No. 8 Texas Tech the previous week.

Scalley is trying his darnedest to keep his team focused and motivated to the max. The stakes are obvious: Utah is in prime position to win the Big 12 and earn a first-round bye in the College Football Playoff. A loss Saturday wouldn’t prevent any of that from happening. But the Big 12 won’t get the benefit of the doubt from the CFP Committee. So any stumble shrinks the margin for error.

Scalley also framed Arizona as a team that’s “had our number.” The Wildcats have won two in a row in the series.

“So I don't think it's very difficult to get our guys up for this one,” Scalley said.

Maybe the Utes have what it takes to avoid putting the “L” in “letdown.” The trouble others have encountered under similar circumstances is why I’m picking Arizona.

Take that for data!

So about Arizona’s attendance, or lack thereof ...

I’m not going to try to guilt-trip you into going to Saturday’s game — even though it’s arguably the Wildcats’ biggest home game in over a decade and, sadly, Noah Fifita’s next-to-last home game.

I get it. Times are tough. Money is tight. Despite the UA administration’s best efforts, going to a game can be a hassle.

It would just be nice — one time — to have what Utah had last week.

The “Holy War” marked the Utes’ 101st consecutive home sellout. That’s the third-longest streak in FBS (Nebraska, 416; Oklahoma, 171). Rice-Eccles was rocking for a 10 a.m. kickoff.

Arizona hasn’t had a home sellout since Oct. 19, 2024, vs. Colorado (thank you, Coach Prime). The UA has a non-sellout streak of 15 games.

Maybe that will end Saturday. As of Thursday evening, less than 3,000 tickets remained unsold, according to a UA spokesman. That’s promising.

Interestingly, the Wildcats have been unaffected by their lackluster home attendance. They’re 5-0 at Casino Del Sol Stadium and 11-1 at home over the past two seasons.

Utah’s home-field advantage is undeniable. The Utes have won 44 of their past 51 home games and have seven undefeated home seasons this century.

(Rincon) Market report

Going up: UA’s national attention

The spotlight is upon us. Arizona-Utah is one of five ranked-vs.-ranked matchups this week. FOX’s “Big Noon Kickoff” is broadcasting from the UA Mall. Rob Gronkowski is hosting a pregame bash (“Yo soy fiesta” indeed). FOX’s No. 1 crew of Gus Johnson, Joel Klatt and Jenny Taft is announcing the game. A UA home game hasn’t had this much hype and buildup since ESPN’s “College GameDay” came to Tucson on Sept. 26, 2015, for No. 16 Arizona vs. No. 9 UCLA. Hopefully this Saturday will play out differently than that one.

Going down: Sunflower State football

Remember the preseason sleeper talk about Kansas State? Remember when Kansas was fighting for bowl berths under Lance Leipold? KSU and KU were tied for last place in the Big 12 entering this weekend. (Colorado also was 1-5 entering its Friday-night game vs. Houston.) The Manhattan Wildcats (4-5, 1-5) have had all sorts of quarterback issues and are in danger of not being bowl-eligible for the first time since 2020. (KSU elected not to play in a bowl game last season.) The Jayhawks (3-6, 1-5) are in danger of missing the postseason for the third straight year. But hey, the basketball team looked great the other night, didn’t it?

A question from my X

“Does Arizona establish a run game against Utah and protect Noah Fifita?” — @bwilkes60 via X

I liked what I saw from the UA rushing attack last week against TCU, especially after its anemic performance at Texas Tech. It wasn’t incredibly explosive, but it was competent enough to keep the Wildcats out of third-and-long situations most of the time.

Arizona finished with 128 yards on the ground. Anything in the 125 range would suffice against a Utah defense that allows 103.3 rushing yards per game, the second-fewest in the Big 12.

Only two teams have topped 125 yards against Utah this season, and they aren’t the ones you’d expect: Colorado had 138, and Cincinnati had 193 in a 49-25 defeat.

As much as Arizona relies on Fifita to make smart decisions and big plays, the offense is most effective when it has some semblance of balance.

“When those guys are fighting for extra yards and ... you're on track still, you can call basically whatever you want,” UA offensive coordinator Seth Doege said.

“When our run game is hitting, it just opens up everything.”

Threads

Houston was set to debut a new uniform vs. Colorado on Friday night, and what a beauty it is. The kit has been dubbed the “Icy Houston Blues.” It’s an all-white version of the Houston Oilers-inspired unis that the Cougars wear about once per season. These feature a script, sky-blue “Houston” with a red border on the helmet, chest and thigh. The numbers are also sky blue with red borders. The pants have single sky-blue stripes on the sides. The helmet has a red stripe down the middle and a red facemask. It’s a perfect blend.

What he said ...

“You face one of these Big 12 defenses every week. You go in on Sunday and you start watching the tape. You're like, ‘OK, how am I going to get a first down?’ These guys are good. We definitely got a challenge on our hands just like we did last week.” — Doege on facing Utah’s defense

What he meant ...

“I know I’m the guy who said, ‘Stats are for losers.’ But can I give you some numbers from last week’s game vs. TCU? Our 29 points were the most they’ve allowed this season. Our 441 yards were the second most they’ve allowed this season. Our 6.3 yards per play were the highest by any TCU opponent this season. The point being: We’re good, too!”

The other side

“Culture is what you believe. It's how you behave based on that belief. Your behavior has to show it. And then it's the experience that's delivered by that behavior. So if I'm asking someone to behave a certain way (and) they're not winning, they're not seeing results, they're not feeling like they're improving ... don't expect them to stay. Don't expect them to keep doing the things that you're asking them to do. The experience has to be awesome.” — Scalley on Utah’s culture

Pick to click (aka #fadelev)

I finally got back on the winning side last week. It’s almost enough to make me want to go “tarps off.” Speaking of which, we’re returning to the site where the bare-chested, shirt-waving fan phenomenon began for this week’s pick. No. 25 Oklahoma State hosts No. 12 Texas Tech. The Cowboys are 3.5-point favorites. Their offense is an absolute juggernaut, averaging a mind-boggling 47.8 points per game in league play. Thomas Castellanos undeniably has given the Red Raiders a spark. But they barely squeaked past West Virginia at home. Stillwater at 8:30 p.m. local is going to be a scene. Give me the Pokes. (season record: 3-6)

One last thing

About the last person I expected to see play defense for Arizona against TCU was Dajon Hinton.

Not because the sophomore isn’t talented enough to do it. He’s just had a horrific run of injuries, including a third torn ACL suffered in the Jan. 2 Holiday Bowl.

UA defensive coordinator Danny Gonzales said Hinton was “at the lowest point that you could possibly imagine a young man being” after that game. He had played 14 snaps in Arizona’s opt-out-depleted secondary before getting hurt.

Gonzales said “numerous people” told Hinton he shouldn’t play football again. The optimistic timeline for his return was spring practice in 2027.

“And that kid said, ‘No,’ ” Gonzales said. “He worked his tail off every single day.”

Hinton obliterated the timeline. He played five special-teams snaps vs. Texas Tech on Halloween. Then, when nickel corner Malcolm Hartzog Jr. got hurt in the first quarter vs. TCU, Hinton got the call.

He played 39 defensive snaps. He was targeted three times but allowed only one reception. He might start against Utah if Hartzog remains out.

“I could not be more proud of an individual than I am of Dajon Hinton,” Gonzales said.

“There's a lot of people in this world that would have no chance of overcoming what he overcame.”