Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs has led her challenger, Rep. Andy Biggs, in eight October polls of the Arizona governor's race.
Each of the polls released in the month before the Nov. 3 election show Hobbs with a lead. The margin is as narrow as 4 percentage points and as high as 17 points. All the polls surveyed voters likely to cast a ballot this year, and all but one showed Hobbs' lead outside the margin of error.
An average of all the polls showed Hobbs ahead of Biggs 50% to 42%, without accounting for factors like poll size or methodology.
The most recent survey, from Phoenix's Noble Predictive Insights, showed Hobbs up 6 percentage points over Biggs.
"She's in the best position a Democrat has been in decades," said pollster Mike Noble. The poll showed Hobbs with a wide lead among independent voters and drawing 9% of Republicans. "The defections matter in a state this competitive," Noble said.
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In addition to polls in Hobbs' favor, two of the nation's prominent race prognosticators shifted the race from leaning in Hobbs' favor to a likely Democratic victory.
Here's a look at the polls, what forecasters and prediction markets say, and the money fueling the race into its final days.
What October polls show
In 2022, when Hobbs won the Governor's Office by less than 1% over GOP nominee Kari Lake, most polls ahead of Election Day showed Lake in the lead. But they were all in the margin of error, reflecting the closeness of that race.
Polls offer a snapshot of voter sentiment at the time they are conducted, and do not predict election outcomes. The Silver Bulletin rates pollster quality using a formula based on past accuracy and transparency, and has ranked many of the below firms.
Here's what this year's October polls show
Noble's most recent survey was in the field from Oct. 26 to 28 and included 511 likely voters. It had a margin of error of 4.3 percentage points and showed Hobbs ahead 51% to Biggs' 45%.
Kreate Strategies conducted a poll of 900 likely voters for American Encore, a conservative group founded and run by Biggs' strategist, Sean Noble. The poll ran from Oct. 25 to 27, and 48% of people said they would vote for Hobbs and 43% said they would vote for Biggs.
Republican-leaning Phoenix firm HighGround did two polls in October that together showed Biggs shoring up support from GOP voters, but trailing Hobbs among independents. Both polls included 400 likely voters and had margins of error of 4.9 percentage points.
The first HighGround poll from Oct. 6 to 8 put Hobbs at 51% to Biggs' 34%. The second poll from Oct. 21 to Oct. 25 showed Biggs slightly narrowing the gap, with 39% of voters saying they'd vote for him versus 51% for Hobbs.
Republican Arizona pollster GrayHouse also did two October surveys paid for by GOP candidate for treasurer Elijah Norton. The polls showed steady support for each gubernatorial candidate and both had a margin of error of 4.2 percentage points.
In the Oct. 6 to 8 GrayHouse poll, 50% of voters said they would vote for Hobbs and 44% said they would vote for Biggs. In the later Oct. 18 to 20 poll, 51% said they would support Hobbs and 45% said they would vote for Biggs.
Wick surveyed 1,513 likely voters from Oct. 3 to 6. It found Hobbs ahead with 49% of voters in her corner versus 43% for Biggs. The margin of error was 2.6 percentage points.
Politico published a summary of a poll for Hobbs' campaign with the narrowest lead of all the polls. The poll of 600 likely voters from Sept. 30 to Oct. 4 showed Hobbs ahead of Biggs, 49% to 45%. The margin of error was 4 percentage points. The one-page poll summary ended with a plea for Hobbs supporters to contribute more cash to her campaign.
Several, but not all, of the polls included third-party candidates for governor Teri Hourihan, the No Labels nominee, and Risa Lombardo, the Green Party nominee. Neither polled above the low single digits. The most recent HighGround poll had each candidate under 2% support. The early October GrayHouse poll had each at 1%.
Two forecasters shift for Hobbs in race's final days
Cook Political Report moved the race from leaning in Hobbs' favor to "likely Democrat" in its last round of race ratings released Oct. 29. "Likely Democrat" means the race is not considered competitive but could become engaged, according to Cook.
Sabato's Crystal Ball also moved the race from the lean Democrat to the likely Democrat column as of Oct. 27, saying it would be "stunning at this point" if Hobbs lost.
InsideElections says the race tilts in Hobbs' favor. The forecaster has not moved the race to more certain ratings, such as leaning or likely in Hobbs' favor.
Prediction markets favor a Hobbs victory
Prediction markets raise concerns about ethical practices and whether they can be manipulated, but there's also some evidence they're good at predicting winners. Here's what top markets showed about the race as of Oct. 29.
Kalshi gave Hobbs a 90% chance of winning. Polymarket puts Hobbs' odds at 92%.
How the campaign warchests stack up
In an Oct. 20 fundraising post on social media, Hobbs' campaign claimed she was being outspent in the race "3-to-1." But the latest campaign finance reports show she is the leader of the money race compared to Biggs.
Hobbs' campaign did not respond to questions about the claim, or her overall financial picture.
Hobbs' campaign spent $17.8 million through the end of September, the most recent reporting date. The sum is likely to grow as reports for the final campaign push become publicly available.
The Democratic Governors Association, a national group that supports Democratic gubernatorial candidates, spent over $20 million to help Hobbs through mid-October, state reports show. That is more than double its support for Hobbs when she won the open seat and her first term in 2022.
Biggs' campaign spent over $5 million at the end of September, a much smaller sum attributable to his lethargic fundraising when compared to Hobbs' haul.
Republican Leadership for Arizona, a PAC largely funded by the conservative Club For Growth and other private interests, spent over $3.8 million to help Biggs, state reports show.
Biggs' biggest boost came from Turning Point Action, the political arm of slain conservative activist Charlie Kirk's Turning Point USA. Kirk endorsed Biggs, and Biggs has said Kirk recruited him to run for governor. Turning Point's PAC has spent over $18 million since June to help Biggs, dark-money disclosures show.
Those figures don't account for additional spending for each candidate through their state political party. The exact spending by the parties on behalf of the gubernatorial nominees is hard to calculate, because the parties spend for candidates up and down ballot, are often an intermediaries for groups like the Democratic Governors Association, and transfer millions of dollars between committees that could lead to double counting.
But overall, Arizona Democrats outpace GOP party spending. The Arizona Democratic Party has spent $9.7 million in the cycle to the Arizona Republican Party's $7 million, reports show.
But the bulk of Democrats' spending has been through a coordinated campaign and routed through the Navajo County Democratic Committee because of earlier intraparty turmoil.
The Navajo County party had spent over $46 million as of Oct. 17, disclosures show.
