On Arizona having a lot to prove at Wazzu and other Week 4 thoughts | Michael Lev

If the Arizona Wildcats are truly who we thought they were, this is the time to prove it.

Arizona is a double-digit favorite at Washington State.

The Wildcats have stability throughout the organization, from head coach to coordinators to quarterback. The Cougars are on their third head coach in as many years. They haven’t had the same starting quarterback two years in a row since Cam Ward in 2022 and ’23.

All the analytics favor Arizona — FPI, SP+, Massey, Sagarin.

If they’re reasonably accurate — and predictive — the Wildcats should win fairly comfortably Saturday in Pullman.

Based on what I’ve seen so far, I’m not ready to go there ... yet.

Arizona’s résumé is underwhelming: Two wins at home vs. significantly less talented opponents (NAU, NIU) and a loss at BYU that was close until it wasn’t.

For what it’s worth — and it’s worth at least something — the Wildcats are 0-3 against the spread this season. Point spreads aren’t an exact measure of a team’s quality. But they do frame expectations. Arizona hasn’t quite met them.

Nothing that’s happened through three games rises to the red-flag level. But certain trends are concerning.

Arizona’s rushing totals have declined each week. The Wildcats have allowed the most sacks in the Big 12. They have the fewest takeaways.

Washington State represents a step up in competition from NAU and NIU. But the WSU Cougars are nowhere near the BYU Cougars.

Wazzu was able to ugly things up and stay within striking distance of Washington in the season-opening Apple Cup. The Cougars were thoroughly outplayed the following week at Kansas State, which had more than twice as many first downs (24-10) and nearly three times as many yards (487-166).

WSU beat Duquesne handily. But it was a seven-point game at halftime. And Duquesne lost the previous week 70-13 to Youngstown State.

Arizona has a sizable edge at quarterback and, at least on paper, talent advantages across the board. Assuming the Wildcats play a relatively clean game — a major point of emphasis for Brent Brennan and his staff this week — they should prevail with minimal stress. Such an outcome would firm up Arizona’s credentials as a legitimate Big 12 contender.

I just need to see it to fully believe it.

Take that for data!

Arizona and Washington State have a lengthy history, having been conference mates for more than four decades. Their recent history is chock-full of statistical anomalies. Here are some highlights:

– In the past eight meetings, dating to 2014, at least one side has scored 44 or more points seven times.

– The Cougars scored 69 points in lopsided victories in Pullman in 2016 (69-7) and ’18 (69-28). At least they didn’t reach 70, right?

– Only two of those eight games were decided by 11 or fewer points. The average margin in the other six: 35 points.

– The only one-score game was a 45-42 shootout in 2015 in which the teams combined for 1,114 yards and WSU’s Gabe Marks scored four touchdowns.

– WSU’s Luke Falk passed for 514 yards in that game. Teammate Tyler Hilinski passed for 509 yards in the 2017 meeting — which Arizona won 58-37. J.J. Taylor (153 yards) and Khalil Tate (146) combined for 299 rushing yards in that contest.

– The only unremarkable game out of the past eight was WSU’s 31-20 win in Tucson in 2022. But even that game had a hook: Jayden de Laura facing his former school. He passed for 357 yards — and threw four interceptions.

(Rincon) Market report

Going up: Collin Klein’s bona fides

The first-year head coach at Kansas State has his alma mater rolling — the Manhattan Wildcats are 3-0 entering Saturday’s visit to Cincinnati — and mercurial QB Avery Johnson playing the best ball of his career. Johnson has completed 69.9% of his passes (he’s never been above 60% for a full season) and has rushed for 253 yards (while averaging 10.5 yards per carry). Meanwhile, the quarterback Klein coached at Texas A&M, Marcel Reed, seems to have regressed without him. Reed threw two interceptions in the then-No. 9 Aggies’ home loss to unranked Kentucky last week.

Going down: Colorado optimism

The Buffaloes had a chance to start 3-0 with a winnable game at Northwestern. They did not take the assignment seriously, losing 41-7. Making matters worse, a CU player, safety Ben Finneseth, was caught on camera disparaging Northwestern’s temporary stadium. He apologized a few days later during a news conference in which Buffs coach Deion Sanders said he dismissed several players for “conduct detrimental to the team.” Sanders believes he didn’t do enough to quell such behavior last year, when CU went 3-9. But off-field drama seems to be more of a feature than a bug under Coach Prime.

A question from my X

“Which unit's struggles are more troubling/impactful/fixable, OL or secondary?” — @MoPaiaina via X

I would pick the offensive line for the first two, the secondary for the third.

The O-line just hasn’t quite clicked for a full game yet (see rushing and sack stats cited above). Maybe that’s coming.

Center Zach Henning has been the steadiest of the bunch, recording the highest grade (76.0) and the fewest QB pressures allowed (one) among the starters, per Pro Football Focus.

Right-side veterans Alexander Doost and Tristan Bounds have performed adequately in pass protection (five combined QB pressures) but haven’t moved the line of scrimmage consistently.

The left side of Matthew Lado and Rhino Tapa’atoutai really struggled at BYU. Hopefully that experience will help them this week.

As far as fixability, both units are well-coached. But Arizona simply has more viable options and depth in the defensive backfield — even with talented transfer Daylen Austin having suffered a season-ending injury.

Threads

Baylor will wear throwback uniforms against Colorado on Saturday, and they’re fantastic. They recall the uniforms worn from 1982-92, featuring shimmering gold helmets, green jerseys with white bear-paw prints atop the shoulders and white pants. Baylor hasn’t sported the bear paws in over 30 years. The helmets feature 10 green stars — five on either side of the green stripe that bisects the lid. That’s a tribute to former head coach Grant Teaff, who led Baylor to its first 10-win season and recorded 10 victories over Texas.

What he said ...

“Obviously, we don't want Noah Fifita getting hit at all if we can avoid it. Protection is O-line, tight ends, backs. It's the receivers getting open on time. Everybody has a piece of it.” — Brennan on Fifita getting sacked four times last week.

What he meant ...

“If I see Noah getting knocked to the turf, you know who else will be off their feet? Whoever was responsible. Because you’ll be sitting on the bench. Job No. 1 is to protect No. 1, you know what I mean?”

The other side

“Looking at Arizona, did not need an alarm on Sunday to get up. ... Great opportunity for our guys and for our fans. Top Big 12 opponent at home on CBS. We gotta maximize every day.” — WSU head coach Kirby Moore.

Pick to click (aka #fadelev)

I would never question Vegas. But the line for the TCU-UCF game in Orlando — the Horned Frogs are favored by 2.5 points — feels a little light. Maybe TCU’s first impression — a janky 15-10 loss to North Carolina in Ireland — is still lingering? The Horned Frogs are 2-0 on U.S. soil, beating Grambling State and Arkansas State by a combined score of 94-14. They’ve allowed only three touchdowns in three games. Meanwhile, UCF is without starting quarterback Alonza Barnett III (hamstring). Backup Keyone Jenkins struggled last week vs. Georgia State (7 of 17, 86 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT). Give me the Frogs. (season record: 1-2)

One last thing

The next time your Wildcats play in Tucson — vs. Cincinnati on Oct. 3 — the game will kick off a little after 8 p.m.

This is suboptimal on many levels.

First off, the late start time is a massive deterrent for two entire demographics — kids and seniors. Attendance, or lack thereof, has been an ongoing problem. This won’t help.

Second, if you want to promote Fifita, kicking off at 11 p.m. Eastern Time isn’t the best way to go about it. Yes, it’s nice to have a near-exclusive TV window on FOX. But with all due respect to Arizona and Cincinnati, who’s staying up to watch Arizona and Cincinnati?

Finally, this absolutely stinks for the Bearcats. Cincinnati already had the hardest schedule in the Big 12, in my estimation. Now the Bearcats have to play an 11 p.m. body-clock game?

Unfortunately, the schools have little if any control over kickoff times, which are dictated by the TV networks, which pay massive amounts of money for that privilege. It is, alas, the cost of doing business.