Cats Stats: Noah Fifita’s Heisman campaign is fading, but he’s posting award-worthy numbers

That pass, unfortunately, was not completed. It’s one that will haunt Fifita and UA fans for a long time.

We’re talking about the fourth-down miss vs. Texas Tech this past Saturday, the apparent gimme that burned the edge of the hole and wouldn’t drop into the cup.

Fifita had Tyler Powell wide open on fourth-and-1. The fifth-year quarterback slightly overthrew the 6-foot-7 tight end.

Instead of extending a drive that could have given Arizona the lead — and further elevated Fifita’s profile in a game that drew more national attention than usual for UA football — the Wildcats remained behind.

“Just one of those things,” UA offensive coordinator Seth Doege said. “Even the greatest ones miss. It was unfortunate.

“He gets on the headset right after that and immediately apologizes to me. Because we love each other so much, he felt like he let me down. I'm like, ‘Bro, I don't care. We're gonna have a chance to go win this game because you're on the field.’

“And honestly, the truth is, and what I told him afterwards, we're only in that game because of Noah Fifita. ... Anybody who has any other opinion about that, you've lost your mind.”

Despite Fifita’s otherwise stellar performance — 417 yards and a touchdown against a defense designed to stop him, per Doege — Arizona lost in Lubbock. That setback likely submarined Fifita’s Heisman hopes, which were faint to begin with, at least according to the betting odds.

But just because Fifita probably can’t win the Heisman, that doesn’t mean he isn’t having a Heisman-caliber season. To show you just how close he is, we here at “Cats Stats” have come up with a way to measure Fifita’s worthiness.

We’re calling it the Mensah QB Challenge. Quite simply, we’re comparing some of Fifita’s statistics — the ones that matter most for a quarterback — to those of Miami QB Darian Mensah, who’s the clear favorite to win the Heisman.

While Fifita and the Wildcats face an extremely stingy TCU defense Friday night, Mensah and the Hurricanes face Notre Dame in South Bend on Saturday — by far their biggest challenge to date.

Before all the Heisman candidates further state their cases this weekend, let’s see how Fifita fares in the Mensah QB Challenge:

The basics

Mensah has posted an impeccable résumé when it comes to the baseline stats. Fifita has a hard time competing here. Then again, so does everyone else.

Mensah leads the nation with an obscene completion rate of 80.7%. The FBS record is 77.4%.

You know who’s No. 2, though? That would be Fifita, who’s at 74.1%.

Mensah’s touchdown-to-interception ratio of 25-1 is also the best in the country. Nine quarterbacks have 20 or more touchdown passes. Six of them have at least five interceptions.

Fifita’s TD-INT ratio is 19-4. His 19 TD passes are tied for 10th in the nation.

You’ll never guess who’s No. 1 in efficiency rating. Yeah, that would be Mensah at 202.67. No one else is close. Fifita ranks 10th at 171.52.

Mensah ranks second nationally in average per attempt at 10.4 yards, just behind injured Ohio State QB Julian Sayin at 10.5. (Sayin is second in efficiency rating at 184.53). Fifita is tied for 13th at 9.2 yards.

Fifita has the edge on Mensah in passing yards per game. Fifita ranks fifth at 310.1; Mensah is sixth at 303.1. Fifita also has a slight advantage in total offense, producing 2,578 yards (fifth) to Mensah’s 2,534 (sixth). Both have played eight games.

Digging deeper

We’ve checked out the exterior of the car. We’ve taken it for a test drive. Now let’s look under the hood.

Three specific areas have our attention here: third down, red zone and big plays.

Fifita has a superior completion rate on third down, hitting on 78.1% of those passes, per CFBStats.com. That would easily be a career best.

Mensah is a mere mortal on third down, completing just 70.2% of his throws. However, he has kept the ball out of harm’s way, posting a TD-INT ratio of 4-0 on third-down plays. Fifita’s ratio is 5-3.

Fifita has been excellent in the red zone, posting a 71.8% completion rate with a 9-0 TD-INT ratio. Mensah has been even better, hitting at a 72.7% rate with a 17-0 TD-INT ratio. If that’s not Heisman-worthy, we don’t know what is.

Finally, big plays. Mensah ranks fifth nationally with 37 passes that have gained 20 or more yards. Fifita is tied for seventh with 35.

Mensah gains some separation on passes with 20-plus air yards. He ranks fourth nationally with a 57.7% completion rate, per Pro Football Focus. Fifita is 19th at 48.6%.

The gap narrows when you factor in drops. Miami receivers have yet to drop a Mensah pass of 20-plus yards, per PFF, so his completion rate stays the same. Fifita’s rises to 54.3% when you recalibrate two dropped passes.

Advanced analytics

Let’s drill down even further.

PFF has a stat called big-time throws, or BTT. It defines a BTT as “a pass with excellent ball location and timing, generally thrown further down the field and/or into a tighter window.”

Again, Mensah has the advantage here. His BTT rate of 6.9% is tied for 11th nationally. Fifita is tied for 53rd at 4.9%.

As mentioned in the previous section, PFF also calculates adjusted completion percentage by taking drops out of the mix. Mensah ranks second in the country with an adjusted completion rate of 86.2%. Fifita is tied for eighth at 80.7%.

Another unique PFF metric is TWP, aka turnover-worthy plays. The site defines a TWP as “a pass that has a high-percentage chance to be intercepted or a poor job of taking care of the ball and fumbling.”

Despite having thrown more interceptions, Fifita beats Mensah in this category. Fifita’s TWP rate of 1.5% is tied for seventh in the country. Mensah is at 2.2%, tied for 37th.

Put another way, Mensah has gotten a little lucky in terms of turning the ball over.

Last but not least, let’s look at passing under pressure.

Fifita (28.9% of dropbacks) has faced slightly more pass-rush pressure than Mensah (25.6%). Yet it’s Fifita who has a higher completion rate — 56.7% (13th best in the nation) to 50.0% (tied for 33rd).

Interceptions (or interception luck) again tilt the tale of the tape in Mensah’s favor. He has a 3-1 TD-INT ratio when passing under pressure; Fifita’s is 4-4.

Most Heisman voters won’t parse the numbers to this extent. They’ll look at overall stats, team records, big games and narratives.

If Miami beats Notre Dame, Mensah will cement his place as the favorite. If the Fighting Irish upend the top-ranked Hurricanes, Notre Dame quarterback CJ Carr could jump to the front of the line.

Either way, Fifita will be left to ponder what could have been.