On Arizona football’s alternate reality and other Big 12 thoughts | Michael Lev

As Arizona football begins the final third of the 2026 season, I keep thinking about what’s to come in ’27.

Specifically, the 24-team College Football Playoff.

Would we — UA chroniclers and supporters alike — view last week’s loss against Texas Tech differently in a 24-team context? Would it change the way we’re thinking about Friday night’s matchup against TCU?

And if the answer to those questions is yes, would that be a positive change?

In the current 12-team world, Arizona’s loss to Texas Tech wasn’t a death blow — but it basically put the Wildcats on life support. They need to win out and get help to make the Big 12 Championship Game, which is their only path to the CFP.

In the 24-team format, the loss would have hurt — but it wouldn’t have been devastating. To wit: Arizona landed at No. 22 in the initial CFP Ranking. The Wildcats would still be in the Playoff.

When Ross Dellenger of Yahoo Sports posted what that hypothetical bracket would look like, I gotta admit: It was pretty darned exciting. No. 22 Arizona vs. No. 11 Notre Dame in South Bend in the first round? Who says no?

The concern that many college football fans and pundits have about expanding the Playoff again is that it will diminish the impact of the regular season. I do believe that will happen to an extent.

But the part we’re probably underestimating is the emotional investment die-hard fans have in their teams.

Just look at the online reaction countless UA men’s basketball fans had to Arizona’s season-opening loss to UCLA on Monday night. You would have thought the Wildcats had lost by 90 instead of nine. Many proclaimed that the season was essentially over.

Never mind that the Bruins are deep, talented and well-coached. Never mind that the loss won’t harm the Wildcats’ NCAA Tournament chances in any way.

The outcome still produced a volatile mix of angst, frustration and hopelessness. It was fandom in a nutshell.

That’s the main reason I don’t think the expanded CFP will hurt college football as much as some suspect — if at all.

One of my followers on X, Brian Grover, put it well: “First of all, losing sucks; ruins your Saturday. Second of all, seeding is still massive. You wanna host, not have to go to South Bend in December!”

So let’s say the potential to make the CFP and to host a game (by climbing into the top 16) were still in play for Arizona. That would raise the stakes for Friday’s game, right?

The more I think about it, the more I like the 24-team CFP.

That’s a sentence I never thought I’d write.

Take that for data!

The opening salvo of Mac Engel’s Nov. 4 column in the Fort Worth Star-Telegram is a banger: Someone is lying.

It’s about two topics and one man: TCU head coach Sonny Dykes.

We’re going to focus on the second part here because it involves numbers.

Dykes flat-out denied that the Horned Frogs have the second-highest roster budget in the Big 12.

Engel cited the piece in The Athletic from last month that estimated the roster budgets for every Power Four team plus Notre Dame.

“The report said TCU’s payroll is between $22 million and $25 million,” Engel wrote. “According to high-ranking members of TCU’s administration, its football team has the second-highest payroll in the Big 12 at close to $30 million, trailing only Texas Tech.”

Dykes wasn’t having it.

“The numbers that are being talked about are nowhere near the truth — just FYI. Not even close,” Dykes said Tuesday. “It’s accounting. There are a lot of different ways to do accounting.”

None of this is surprising. Administrators are incentivized to exaggerate their roster budgets because it makes them look good; they’re doing everything in their power to fundraise and maximize their player payroll.

Coaches, meanwhile, love crying poor and pointing out how they’re doing more with less.

Unless the system changes, we’ll never know precisely what anyone’s roster budget is. I do know this: TCU’s is a lot higher than Arizona’s.

(Rincon) Market report

Going up: Big 12 clarifications

Another week, another mea culpa from the conference regarding an officiating mistake. The latest awarded BYU a touchdown against Arizona State in a game the Cougars ended up winning by ... a touchdown. Either by its own admission or courtesy of the officiating police, the Big 12 has been guilty of critical rules-enforcement errors three weeks in a row. (All three original rulings benefited BYU, by the way.) No league wants that stink. To that end, per colleague Jon Wilner, the Big 12 held a meeting this week to evaluate the “entire operation.” It’s badly needed.

Going down: Quarterback stability

It’s probably no coincidence that most of the teams at or near the top of the Big 12 standings have had stable QB situations, while many in the bottom half of the league have not. Whether because of injuries or ineffectiveness, UCF (2-3 in league play), ASU (2-3), Colorado (1-4), Kansas State (1-4) and Kansas (1-4) have started multiple quarterbacks this season. The biggest outlier in terms of win-loss record is Texas Tech (4-1). TTU switched from Will Hammond to Thomas Castellanos last week, and it was a huge factor in the win over Arizona. Red Raiders fans would argue that, before the change, they were winning in spite of Hammond, not because of him.

A question from my X

“Do you anticipate next year’s starting quarterback is currently in the quarterback room or will come from the portal?” — @Wsugolfer11 via X

We answered a similar question on The Wildcast earlier this week, but it’s a topic that’s worth exploring again.

Sadly, the Noah Fifita era will come to an end whenever this season concludes. Brent Brennan and his staff will then have to deal with the reality of a Fifita-free QB room.

Whether his successor is on the current roster depends on several factors. The biggest is whether offensive coordinator/QB coach Seth Doege returns to Arizona. He acknowledged having opportunities elsewhere this past offseason.

If Doege returns, current backups Sawyer Anderson and Oscar Rios will headline a spring QB battle that could extend into training camp. Sophomore Luke Haugo and incoming freshman Caden Jones could be part of that mix as well.

Given that none of them has played a meaningful snap of college football, Arizona undoubtedly will add a veteran transfer. But if the coaches feel good about the returnees, the portal pickup could be in the mold of Braedyn Locke, who came to Arizona a year ago knowing Fifita was entrenched as the starter. Locke served a valuable role as a pseudo-coach and mentor.

If Doege leaves, odds are that either Anderson or Rios will transfer. Even if Doege returns, it’s still possible — likely even — that one of the current quarterbacks will depart. That’s just how it works in college football nowadays.

If that happens, Arizona could look to add a contender for the starting job — if the price is reasonable.

Threads

Red vs. blue isn’t just the graphical representation of a never-ending U.S. political conflict. It’s the color palette for the “Holy War” between Utah and BYU. The Cougars announced that they’re wearing royal blue from head to toe for Saturday’s top-10 matchup in Salt Lake City. Social-media posts as of Wednesday evening suggested that the Utes would counter with their all-reds. While I’ll always stan for a crisp all-white kit, this is how it was meant to be.

What he said ...

“They're the best defense in our conference. They do an awesome job of mixing up their coverages, their pressures. They do a very good job of defending what you put on tape. ... (Andy Avalos has) been calling plays for a long time. He's really good at it, and they combine that with really good personnel.” — Brennan on TCU’s defense

What he meant ...

“This isn’t one of those situations where I’m pumping up the opponent just to be respectful. TCU’s defense is literally the best in the Big 12, you know what I mean? They’re first in points allowed, total defense and third-down defense. I’m not saying I’ve never used ‘coachspeak’ before. This isn’t that. They’re legit.”

The other side

“I don't concern myself with that. I don't have any control over it. I didn't hear it, didn't see it, didn't know anything about it. And so it's certainly not going to have any impact on me or how hard I work or what I try to do to prepare our team to win." — Dykes on TCU fans calling for him to be fired

Pick to click (aka #fadelev)

If you’ve been fading me here, I hope my run of bad picks continues. But I’m not sure my ego can take much more. We look to the School Up North for relief. This isn’t so much a pick in favor of ASU as against Colorado. Yes, the Buffaloes ended their five-game losing streak last week. Does that make them trustworthy? I’m not there yet. I liked how ASU fought at BYU. I like how freshman Cardae Mack runs the ball. Give me the Devils minus-3.5. (season record: 2-6)

One last thing

UA sophomore receiver Isaiah Mizell is on a tear. He has three straight 100-yard receiving games, totaling 21 catches, 499 yards and four touchdowns over that span.

Every standout performance raises the cost to keep him.

That’s another reality in college sports as currently constituted. Coaches and general managers — a position that didn’t exist in the college space before the NIL/portal era — are constantly thinking about player retention. They’re planning for the future while the present unfolds.

“You have to spend time having those conversations,” Brennan said. “You have to allot time each day to ... roster management.”

Brennan said “you wouldn’t even talk about” player retention 10 years ago, when he first became a head coach and the transfer portal had yet to be conceived.

“It would never be a question from the media,” Brennan added.

For better or worse, times have changed.