Picking every Arizona football game: Can the Wildcats navigate a taxing ’26 schedule?

Unless you’re an Arizona football supporter seeking a repeat of a stellar season.

Stacking success has been rare for the Wildcats. Invariably, when they have a great season, the next one is ... not great.

And whatever happened in the previous season usually shapes our expectations for the next one.

After a 10-3 campaign in 2023, most figured Arizona would have another strong season in ’24 — even with a regime change. Instead, Brent Brennan’s first squad flopped, finishing 4-8.

Heading into last year, improvement seemed possible. No one — except maybe brash defensive coordinator Danny Gonzales — saw 9-4 coming.

Can these Wildcats — who return their head coach, all their coordinators and their star quarterback — buck history and win nine-plus games again? It’s only happened once in program history, in 1975 and ’76.

Arizona was in the WAC then. The 2026 Wildcats are entering their third season in the Big 12. Their schedule will be challenging to navigate — but not impossible.

What follows are predictions for every UA game this year. As the actual season progresses, we reserve the right to change our mind.

Game 1: Northern Arizona

When: Saturday, Sept. 5, 6:30 p.m.

Where: Casino Del Sol Stadium

TV: ESPN+

How it could go: The upset loss to NAU in 2021 is a distant memory; no one from that UA team is still on the roster. Arizona prevailed in the two subsequent meetings, although the 2024 matchup was a bit of a clunker offensively and foretold what was to come that season. Expect fireworks this time from a UA offense that’s been fine-tuned by second-year coordinator Seth Doege — and some mistakes by a UA secondary that’s still figuring things out. Don’t be surprised if QB Noah Fifita ties his personal best of five TD passes.

Final score: Arizona 52, NAU 17

Record to date: 1-0

Game 2: BYU

When: Saturday, Sept. 12, 12:30 p.m.

Where: LaVell Edwards Stadium; Provo, Utah

TV: FOX/11

How it could go: This is the game upon which the entire season could pivot. The Cougars are ranked in the top 15 and are widely considered the second-best team in the Big 12. They’re 11-1 the past two seasons at home — including a 41-19 walloping of Arizona in 2024. An upset would propel the Wildcats into the rankings and nudge Fifita into the Heisman Trophy conversation. Even a close, hard-fought loss would garner respect. We’re leaning toward the latter. Too much physicality, too much pass rush. But no shame in a one-score setback in Provo.

Final score: BYU 26, Arizona 20

Record to date: 1-1 (0-1 Big 12)

Game 3: Northern Illinois

When: Saturday, Sept. 19, 7:30 p.m.

Where: Casino Del Sol Stadium

TV: TNT

How it could go: NIU is now part of the Mountain West in football, which is weird on many levels. The Huskies’ first trip west of the Mississippi will be rough. Expect a bruised but determined UA squad to come out fiery and focused. The Wildcats will get their multipronged ground game going in this one against an NIU defense that allowed 183.3 rushing yards per game last season. Likely starting QB Taron Dickens put up prolific numbers at Western Carolina, but he’s probably never seen a defense as complex as Gonzales’. The Turnover Sword will make multiple appearances.

Final score: Arizona 48, NIU 21

Record to date: 2-1 (0-1)

Game 4: Washington State

When: Saturday, Sept. 26, 4:30 p.m.

Where: Gesa Field; Pullman, Wash.

TV: CBS/13

How it could go: For a time, a trip to the Palouse was the stuff of nightmares for Arizona. The Wildcats suffered blowout losses in Pullman in 2016 (69-7), 2018 (69-28) and 2021 (44-18). But a decisive win in 2023 (44-6) signaled a turnaround for the program. The Cats and Cougars are in different places today — and not just because they’re in different conferences. WSU is in the midst of a rebuild with its third head coach in as many years. It also helps that this game is scheduled for late September, when the weather should be mild. Arizona returns home with a low-stress W.

Final score: Arizona 38, WSU 20

Record to date: 3-1 (0-1)

Game 5: Cincinnati

When: Saturday, Oct. 3

Where: Casino Del Sol Stadium

TV: TBA

How it could go: Could the Bearcats be a little frisky? Perhaps. Although they lost a ton to the NFL and the transfer portal — including QB Brendan Sorsby, who was considered an elite portal pickup for Texas Tech before his gambling issues surfaced — they might have the best offensive line in the Big 12. A ground-and-pound approach could keep this one close. But will new quarterback JC French IV prove capable of making plays if he faces third-and-long? Will the UC defense be able to make enough stops? Not seeing it. Wildcats win their third in a row.

Final score: Arizona 27, Cincinnati 16

Record to date: 4-1 (1-1)

Game 6: West Virginia

When: Saturday, Oct. 10

Where: Milan Puskar Stadium; Morgantown, W.V.

TV: TBA

How it could go: Arizona fans have had this one circled on their calendars since the day Rich Rodriguez returned to Morgantown. He retooled the WVU roster for the second straight offseason, adding more than 80 newcomers. Quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr. (formerly of Oklahoma) and tailback Cam Cook (Jacksonville State) are the headliners and the key figures in a revamped offensive attack. We know any RichRod-coached team eventually will start scoring points. The other side of the ball is a bigger question mark. So expect a shootout here. Arizona is capable of winning that type of game and will ... barely.

Final score: Arizona 35, West Virginia 34

Record to date: 5-1 (2-1)

Game 7: Iowa State

When: Saturday, Oct. 24

Where: Casino Del Sol Stadium

TV: TBA

How it could go: Is a revenge game possible if almost no one is left from the previous matchup? Iowa State’s roster was purged when longtime head coach Matt Campbell left for Penn State. Former Washington State coach Jimmy Rogers had to rebuild it on the fly, and it’ll take a while for the Cyclones to become conference contenders again. Most prognosticators have them finishing last in the Big 12. So this is a welcome reprieve for Arizona between a difficult game at West Virginia and even harder one at Texas Tech.

Final score: Arizona 39, Iowa State 14

Record to date: 6-1 (3-1)

Game 8: Texas Tech

When: Saturday, Oct. 31

Where: Galaxy Stadium; Lubbock, Texas

TV: TBA

How it could go: If the season plays out as projected, this game will be a candidate for ESPN’s “College GameDay” or FOX’s “Big Noon Kickoff.” Regardless, it should be the highest-profile Big 12 game on the slate — and easily Arizona’s biggest test since BYU. The Wildcats will come in confident, riding a five-game winning streak. The Red Raiders should be unbeaten. They might have the easiest schedule in the league — and the most talented roster. Their average margin of victory in Big 12 home games last year was 32 points. The Cats won’t lose by that much — but they will lose.

Final score: Texas Tech 27, Arizona 17

Record to date: 6-2 (3-2)

Game 9: TCU

When: Friday, Nov. 6, 8:15 p.m.

Where: Casino Del Sol Stadium

TV: ESPN

How it could go: The schedule post-Iowa State is treacherous, and it continues with a short-week matchup against the Horned Frogs, who’ve won nine games two years running under Sonny Dykes. You’d feel better about TCU’s chances if quarterback Josh Hoover were in Fort Worth instead of Bloomington, Indiana. But former Harvard starter Jaden Craig brings experience and an intriguing skill set to TCU. New offensive coordinator Gordon Sammis coached Joe Fagano to a 28-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio last season at UConn, so expect the offense to hum. But can the defense hold up on the back end?

Final score: Arizona 38, TCU 31

Record to date: 7-2 (4-2)

Game 10: Utah

When: Saturday, Nov. 14

Where: Casino Del Sol Stadium

TV: TBA

How it could go: This is the second of back-to-back home games for Arizona, which doesn’t face a back-to-back road stretch. It hits at the right time. The Wildcats also will have an extra day of rest, while Utah will be coming off the “Holy War” matchup against BYU. All those factors will play in Arizona’s favor. Additionally, we’re not as bullish on the Utes as some others in the wake of Kyle Whittingham’s departure. New head coach Morgan Scalley provides stability. But the entire offensive line is new, and QB Devon Dampier’s completion percentage plummets when pressured. Gonzales’ group will bring it.

Final score: Arizona 27, Utah 19

Record to date: 8-2 (5-2)

Game 11: Kansas State

When: Saturday, Nov. 21

Where: Bill Snyder Family Stadium; Manhattan, Kan.

TV: TBA

How it could go: Gonzales’ defense flummoxed KSU quarterback Avery Johnson last year, limiting him to 88 passing yards and minus-16 rushing yards. K-State is hopeful that new head coach Collin Klein — who recruited Johnson and coached him in 2023 before spending two seasons at Texas A&M — can coax the best out of his gifted quarterback. If that happens, the Manhattan Wildcats will be a threat. This is also a historically tough spot for Arizona: a cold-weather game the week before the Territorial Cup. KSU takes it and eliminates Arizona from Big 12 Championship Game contention.

Final score: Kansas State 24, Arizona 21

Record to date: 8-3 (5-3)

Game 12: Arizona State

When: Saturday, Nov. 28

Where: Casino Del Sol Stadium

TV: TBA

How it could go: With the Big 12 championship and College Football Playoff out of reach, the Wildcats pour everything into the 100th Territorial Cup football game — and Fifita’s last appearance at Casino Del Sol Stadium. The Sun Devils also have clinched a bowl berth by this point, so the latest meeting between the bitter rivals is purely for bragging rights. With Fifita throwing multiple touchdown passes and earning his third career Bob Moran MVP award, the Wildcats pull away late and win the Territorial Cup for the second straight time and fourth time in the past five matchups.

Final score: Arizona 30, ASU 19

Record to date: 9-3 (6-3)