Cats Stats: Turnover regression is inevitable for Arizona defense ... or is it?

As we’ve documented, it is rare for a UA squad to win nine-plus games two years in a row. It hasn’t happened since the mid-1970s.

Additionally, the Wildcats will try to buck a trend in a particular aspect of the game. It was unequivocally critical to their success last season.

Arizona ranked second in the nation with 31 takeaways. The Wildcats were first in takeaways per game at 2.38.

The Turnover Sword was unsheathed multiple times in nine of 13 games. Only twice did Arizona fail to take the ball away (Houston, Kansas).

Per ESPN, the ’25 Wildcats scored 88 more points than their opponents off turnovers. The previous year, they were 50 points in the red. Arizona’s 138-point swing was the largest year-over-year improvement in FBS.

Here’s the thing about all that: It is difficult to repeat a high-turnover output. Many studies over the years indicate that turnovers, to a large extent, are subject to luck.

For example, the average fumble recovery rate over time is about 50%, according to ESPN.com college football data guru Bill Connelly. If you’re way over 50% in a given year, you’re likely to regress to the mean the following year.

In this season-debut edition of “Cats Stats,” we’ll look at the math that is working against the Wildcats — and why there’s some hope that they can overcome it.

Taking it from the top

As a starting point, we examined the top five finishers (plus ties) in takeaways from 2021-24 — the last four full seasons before last season. (The previous year, 2020, was truncated because of COVID, so we couldn’t include it.)

Only one team out of 23 — the 2022 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers — had as many or more takeaways (32) than the previous season (31). Ten teams had at least 10 fewer takeaways. The average drop was 8.6.

We also broke it down on a per-game basis because teams can play anywhere from 12-16 games these days. Notre Dame, for instance, played 16 games in 2024 and 12 last year, at least partially contributing to its drop from 33 takeaways to 23.

But the Fighting Irish were still down on a per-game basis, as was every team besides Western Kentucky. The average drop was 0.58 takeaways per game, which doesn’t seem like a lot. But over a 13-game season, that’s seven or eight turnovers.

The bulk of Arizona’s takeaways last season came via interceptions. The Wildcats had 22 picks, tied for second most in the country and second most in UA history since Arizona joined the Pac-10 in 1978.

How much of an outlier was that figure in UA annals? It was more than the previous three seasons combined (21). Only twice in the preceding eight seasons did the Wildcats crack double digits.

Is a 22-interception season repeatable? We again looked at the top five (plus ties) from 2021-24. In that 26-team subset, two teams had more picks than the previous season: Middle Tennessee State in 2022 and Notre Dame in ’24. One team had the same amount: UNLV in ’24.

The average annual drop was 6.4 interceptions. The average drop per game was 0.4 — about five picks over a 13-game season.

Process and possibilities

Arizona defensive coordinator Danny Gonzales and his staff don’t get caught up in the numbers. They focus more on the process.

They believe that if the defense plays with maximum effort and physicality every snap of every game, the turnovers will come.

“I don't think there's a magic turnover drill,” Gonzales said. “I don't think there's a magic way to make things happen. The way turnovers happen is ... your guys have to know what’s gonna happen (and) all 11 to the ball with bad humor. Because if we're being violent as hell and we're hitting the guys every time the ball's in the air, all of a sudden receivers get shorthanded and you get tipped balls.

“If we're around the quarterback like we were last year ... they start throwing you the football.

“I think you can train ball security. I don't think you can train turnovers. Turnovers happen because you have good enough players that choose a violent manner, and that's the way they play. That's what we've done ... so that's the expectation.

“Expectations don't matter if the standard never changes. Our standard never changes.”

Linebackers coach Josh Bringuel said he isn’t focused on how many turnovers the defense causes so much as why they happen. The common theme: Playing and hitting hard.

“A lot of times ... you hit the running back so dang hard that he drops the ball,” Bringuel said. “Or he's getting tired of getting hit so dang hard that he's worried about it, and now he's loose with the football.

“Quarterbacks make mistakes when they're afraid of getting hit. So the better job we do of playing violent, playing physical up front with our blitz packages, getting after the quarterback, that increases our chances of getting interceptions.

“We still train. We still train punching out the football, scoop and score, every day, doing those things, because that's what? Part of our process. But the emphasis for us is the physicality, the aggression.”

Bringuel spent several seasons coaching under Tony White, who worked alongside Gonzales at New Mexico, San Diego State and Arizona State. Those teams achieved a level of consistency in the takeaway department that defies statistical convention.

Gonzales was a defensive assistant on 12 teams from 2006-19. Only one of them had fewer than 20 total takeaways and less than 11 interceptions — SDSU in 2013. Those Aztecs had 19 and eight, respectively.

The other 11 squads averaged 26 takeaways and 15 interceptions. The 2015 Aztecs ranked second nationally with 23 picks. The following year, they ranked first with 26.

So while it’s statistically unlikely that Arizona will repeat its takeaway and interception totals from last season, Gonzales’ history suggests that it’s at least possible.